I'm on a 50,000 hand run of cards that has me concerned.
I'm going to give some numbers in terms of disparity between BB total won vs BB total won -All in equity adjusted . The total disparity over 50000 hands is -2000 BB. Which may not sound like a ton, but I've tried to break it down to reflect the consistency.
1st 10000 h -204 BB
2nd 10000 h -320 BB
3rd 10000 h -160 BB
4th 10000 h -642 BB
5th 10000 h -690 BB
I got the idea to isolate smaller samples because of how "rythmetic" and predictable the beats seem to be. It's really more consistent than the above numbers indicate. I can't remember for sure, but when I looked through day by day it's possible that the disparity never went in my favor ( for like 20BB or more) for two days in a row. If I haven't won much the disparity wont be very big. Then if I get a decent run for a couple days the disparity will get worse as I lose back my win. It's not just the all ins, it seems like I've run worse during this period in terms that aren't reflected in this particular stat. If all-in-equity was the only way I ran bad , I wouldn't even have noticed the disparity for the first 30000 hands. I'd like some advice on how I might use Pokertracker to look at different things. Like how often a third suited card falls when I'm pushing top pair OOP.
How much more of this stuff do I need to see before I should get suspicious?
